The system produced a bullish edge based on overlapping conditions. 56% probability is by no means a great edge, but the profit factor was enticing to me. A PF of 1.67 indicates that for every dollar I risked under similar conditions, I stand to make 1.67.
My plan was to buy the dips.
The market dipped and buyers ramped prices back to the open where I exited. What I’m upset about is getting out way too early (I always do).
Es futures stats were bullish. My goal was to buy the dip. Since the day before closed on the lows, I figured if the market will rally, it will do so fairly early (bull market behavior!). I entered on the first small spike down and exited on some spike action on the way up. I missed out on a huge run up, this is a problem I am trying to address on both a psychological as well as systematic space.
Stats for the day were bullish, high chance of gap fill and closing above the open. I entered long a few minutes after ES open and experienced a pretty big draw down (comparable to my profits). I was still confident in the trade. Even if the market did not fill the gap, it should close above the open.
I would normally hold for the entire gap fill, however, because ES dropped so much (compared to the average range), I thought it would be difficult for the market to rally much further. In my experience, complete reversals are not that common. As you can see, my extincts proved accurate for the day as the market essentially closed where I cut.
This trade honestly had a terrible entry, I’ll try to do better next time.
Stats were bullish for the ES. High chance of closing above the open; high chance of closing green on the day; high chance of closing above previous high. But, the ES also had a high chance of a gap fill. I took a long entry after the gap filled because getting before that would be asking for a high probability draw down. The trade still resulted in some heat that was disproportionate from the profit, but nevertheless it was a profit.
The plan was to short into rallies. Stats were weak for closing above yesterday’s highs. I shorted the breakout, which worked out the end, but not before taking a decent sized draw down. As long as my max stop is untouched, I should be comfortable taking some heat. The operative word being should.
Odds for closing above the open today was strong. I was aiming for a long entry due to bullish momo stats and secret sauce seasonality. The trade worked, although volatility was so low that the movement that exciting. I cut a little early, but trade would not have made much more money if I held until the close. Slow grind up bull markets are like this.
Based on historical odds, the ES had low odds of closing above the previous high of day. The plan was to take a short on a spike above yesterday’s high. The trade worked out as planned. I exited right before the bounce which at the time felt premature, but turned out to be the perfect exit. My reason for cutting was because I don’t like swift down moves in a strong market.
Stats suggested a very low chance of closing above previous day’s highs. So I waited for it spike above it and entered a short. The odds played out exactly today, notice how price closed below the previous high.